Shades of 1980. We have a weak Democrat incumbent up against a hard working Republican challenger.
Although I hate to predict election results, I am going to predict that:
Barack Obama will lose the November 6 election.
Note that I am not saying that I predict a Romney victory. I do predict an Obama loss. My reasoning is as follows:
Win, lose or draw, Barack Obama has run one of the worst, if not the worst campaign I have ever seen. The Obama campaign is characterized by:
1. Providing no reason(s) to vote for Obama; and
2. Ridiculous attacks on Romney.
The result has been that the all of the 2012 Presidential election campaign has been about Mitt Romney. What about Mitt Romney? Well the gist of it has been:
1. Romney has offshore bank accounts (especially in Switzerland)
2. Romney won’t release his tax returns
3. Romney doesn’t pay enough tax
4. Romney made his money running Bain capital and Bain capital is evil
5. Romney wants to cut taxes for the rich (I think)
6. Romney is rich
7. Romney is successful
and the list goes on.
Furthermore, the Obama campaign has demeaned the “office of the presidency” with his t ad hominem attacks on Mr. Romney. Unless, I am mistaken, the Romney campaign does not contain equivalent kinds of attack ads.
The Obama campaign has said nothing about Barack Obama – nothing at all. The reason is that there is really nothing to say. Well, that’s not quite right, the Obama campaign has attempted to capitalize on:
1. Osama Bin Laden was killed during the Obama presidency (one would think that Obama pulled the trigger himself)
2. Obama made the decision to pull US troops out of Iraq
3. The US auto industry is prospering
4. Bill Clinton promises that the economy is sure to improve.
Barack Obama is a “media creation”. In 2008 he was the perfect candidate. Because he had no past record, he was free to say anything he wanted. And say anything he did. Stand for anything he did. Four years later he has to run on his record. The problem is that there is no real record to run on. This is a fact and the problem with the “Making of the President” in 2012.
The content and format of the Democratic convention was proof positive that the Democrats see Obama as a candidate of little substance. It was skillfully organized to create a “wall of substance” around a candidate utterly devoid of substance. The worship of Obama during the Democratic convention reminded of the deification of “Great Leader” in North Korea. For good measure, the Obama Campaign brought in Bill Clinton to create substance around a candidate that has no substance at all. Even Mitt Romney, noted that a few words from Bill Clinton could do a candidate a lot of good.
It appeared to be working until the first debate. Debates are only partially about the debate. They are also about being able to see the candidates together, in the same place and at the same time. The debates allowed people to see:
1. Whether the Obama characterization of Romney was reasonable; and
2. How the candidates compared to each other.
Candidates do NOT win or lose debates. Their debate performances do advance or hinder their campaigns.
Here is my perception of the debates at least so far:
Debate Number 1
It was a disaster for Obama. Why? The American people were able to see that Obama’s characterization of Romney was an “Obamination”. Romney was organized, articulate, and passionate. Obama was none of these things. In fact, (although I will admit to having a strong dislike of Obama), Obama was incredibly weak on any and all matters of substance. (I actually felt sorry for him.) But what really happened in debate number 1 was that:
- the Obama characterization of Romney was shown to be wrong
- Romney projected himself as a strong candidate who seemed very presidential
- Obama projected himself as a weak candidate
The polls reflected this. Interestingly, the next day Obama (with the comfort of his teleprompter) said:
“Last night I met a spirited individual who claimed to be Mitt Romney”.
No Mr. President that was Mitt Romney. The time has come for you to deal with Mitt Romney as he is and NOT as your campaign team wished he were.
Summary: Debate number 1 advanced Mr. Romney’s campaign and hurt the President.
Debate Number 2
The Obama campaign team still does not get it. They focused on Mr. Romney’s “binders of women” comment. Anybody who saw the debate understood Mr. Romney to mean “binders of profiles of women candidates”. But, once again, the Obama campaign is NOT about promoting Barack Obama. It’s about attacking Mitt Romney.
The second debate was interesting for a more important reason. Obama came out with more energy and focus. But, in so doing, he sacrificed the dignity of the “Office of the President”. He interrupted Mr. Romney, he attempted to taunt him. His body language and facial expressions lacked the dignity one would expect of a president.
Bottom Line: When Mitt Romney is around, Barack Obama does not look very presidential. This cannot be good for the President.
Summary: Debate number 2 advanced Mr. Romney’s campaign and hurt the President (although not as much as in the first debate).
In the 1980 election, Carter and Reagen debated a few days before the election. At that point, the momentum was favoring Reagen. Just prior to the debate, one commentator said:
“If Mr. Reagen can look presidential this evening”, there’s a good chance he will be president.
There is an analogy to 1980 here. The final debate is Monday October 22. If Mr. Romney can continue to look presidential in this debate (so far Mr. Obama has not), he could very well be President. We will see.
People are likely to vote for somebody who stands for something (little as it may be) than somebody who stands for nothing. After two presidential campaigns and four years of being president, it is hard to know what Barack Obama stands for. (Other than class warfare of course.)
That is why I predict that Barack Obama will lose. The automatic result of an Obama loss is that Romney will be the next President of the United States. Does that mean that he won the election? I wouldn’t go that far.
Updated October 23 with thoughts on the October 22 debate:
The debate was about “foreign policy”. Although, President Obama’s showed that he had more experience with “foreign policy”, Mr. Romney did look “presidential”. Furthermore, Mr. Romney projected himself as a person who was NOT enthusiastic about war. By continuing his condescending attitude toward Mr. Romney, President Obama continued to demean the Office of the president. By continuing his attacks on Mr. Romney, the President continued to make the campaign about Mr. Romney.
Where does that leave us?
Mr. Romney has passed the “could he be seen as president test”? Mr. Obama continues to be an incumbent president who is not particularly popular.
Romney has worked hard to become the POTUS. Here is an interesting video of some of the more entertaining debating moments:
As an example of the new low that this campaign has reached, check out the (this site was not directly linked to the Obama campaign, but it is consistent with it’s spirit) site Romneygirl.org
Where is RomneyGirl.org ? What happened to it? For a possible explanation see: http://www.twitter.com/realromneygirl